GDP and Economic Size

Metric	United States	China
Nominal GDP (2025)	$30.62 trillion	$19.4 trillion
GDP Growth Rate (2024)	2.8%	5.0%
GDP Growth Rate (2025 Projected)	2.0-2.4%	3-4%
GDP per Capita (2025)	$89,599	$13,806
Share of Global GDP	Leading	Second

Key Insight: The US maintains a $11.22 trillion GDP advantage over China in nominal terms, but China’s growth rate is more than double that of the US, though slowing from previous highs.

Population Dynamics (2025)

Metric	United States	China
Total Population	347,275,807	1,416,096,094
World Population Share	4.22%	17.20%
Population Growth Rate	+0.54%	-0.23%
Median Age	38.5 years	40.1 years
Population Density (per km²)	38	151

Key Insight: China has over 4 times the US population but is experiencing population decline for the first time, while the US continues modest growth, a critical demographic advantage for America’s long-term economic prospects.

US-China Trade Evolution (2000 vs 2024)

Year	US Total Trade	China Total Trade	US Trade with China	US-China Trade Balance
2000	$2.0 trillion	$474 billion	$116.8 billion	-$83.8 billion
2024	$5.3 trillion	$6.2 trillion	$634.9 billion	-$574.2 billion
Growth Rate	167% (4.2% CAGR)	1,200% (11.3% CAGR)	443%	586% increase in deficit

Key Insight: China’s total trade has surpassed the US since 2012, growing at nearly triple the rate, while the US trade deficit with China has expanded nearly six-fold over two decades.

US-China Bilateral Trade Deficit Trend (2020-2025)

Year	US Exports to China	US Imports from China	Trade Deficit	% Change in Deficit
2020	$124.6 billion	$432.5 billion	-$308.0 billion	—
2021	$151.4 billion	$504.2 billion	-$352.8 billion	+14.5%
2022	$154.0 billion	$536.3 billion	-$382.3 billion	+8.4%
2023	$147.6 billion	$427.2 billion	-$279.6 billion	-26.9%
2024	$143.2 billion	$438.7 billion	-$295.5 billion	+5.7%
2025 (Jan-Nov)	$97.9 billion	$287.3 billion	-$189.4 billion	-35.9% (annualized)

Key Insight: The US-China trade deficit peaked at $382.3 billion in 2022 and has declined 50% through November 2025, this reflect both trade tensions and supply chain diversification efforts.

Global Banking Dominance by Assets (2025)

Ranking	Top 4 Banks by Assets	Country	Top 4 Banks by Market Cap	Country
#1	ICBC: $6,688.7 billion	China	JPMorgan: $599.9 billion	USA
#2	Agricultural Bank of China: $5,923.8 billion	China	Bank of America: $307.9 billion	USA
#3	China Construction Bank: $5,558.4 billion	China	ICBC: $303.5 billion	China
#4	Bank of China: $4,803.5 billion	China	Agricultural Bank of China: $232.8 billion	China
Top 100 Banks	21 Chinese banks	China	13 US banks	USA

Key Insight: China dominates in total banking assets with 4 of the top 5 positions, but US banks lead in market capitalization, this shows investors value American banking profitability and stability more highly despite smaller asset bases.

Semiconductor and Chip Market Share by Region (2025)

Category	United States	China	Taiwan	South Korea	Japan	Europe
Overall Market Share	50%	~10%	~20%	~15%	~5%	Minimal
Advanced Chip Manufacturing (≤5nm)	Minimal	Minimal	90% (TSMC)	Samsung	Minimal	Minimal
Chip Design Leadership	Leading (Nvidia, AMD, Intel)	Growing	TSMC (manufacturing)	Samsung	Minimal	ASML (equipment)
EDA Software	Dominant	Blocked access	Limited	Limited	Limited	Limited
Semiconductor Equipment	Strong (Applied Materials, Lam)	Restricted	Dependent	Dependent	Strong (TEL)	Dominant (ASML-EUV)

Key Insight: The US commands 50% of the global semiconductor market and leads in chip design and equipment, but remains dependent on Taiwan for advanced manufacturing, a critical vulnerability in the tech race with China.

Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain Control (2025)

Supply Chain Stage	China Market Share	US Market Share
Rare Earth Mining	69%	12%
Rare Earth Refining	92%	0%
Magnet Production	98%	2%
Lithium Refining	70%	1%
Aluminum Smelting	59%	1%
Copper Refining	44%	4%

Key Insight: China controls over 90% of rare earth refining and 98% of magnet production, materials critical for defense systems, EVs, and electronics, this gives Beijing extraordinary leverage over global technology supply chains.

Manufacturing and Technology Leadership

Domain	United States	China
Global Manufacturing Output	Second	First (world’s leading manufacturer)
High-Speed Rail (km built since 2008)	Minimal	45,000 km (more than rest of world combined)
Electric Vehicle Market	Growing	Dominant (BYD EVs cost 3% less than gas cars)
Solar Panel Production	~10% global share	~80% global share
Critical Technology Leadership	7 of 64 categories	57 of 64 categories
Patent Applications (2023)	~25% global share	~48% global share
5G Infrastructure	Limited	Extensive (Huawei operates in 170+ countries)

Key Insight: China has overtaken the US in 57 of 64 critical technology categories tracked by ASPI, including hypersonics, advanced materials, and quantum communications, while dominating manufacturing output and renewable energy production.

AI and Computing Infrastructure (2025)

Metric	United States	China
Global Data Center Capacity	44%	26%
Leading AI Models	OpenAI (GPT), Anthropic (Claude), Google (Gemini)	Alibaba (Qwen), Baidu, DeepSeek, Moonshot AI
Access to Advanced AI Chips	Unrestricted (Nvidia H100, B200)	Restricted (export controls)
Open-Source AI Dominance	Meta (Llama)	Most open-source models now Chinese
Power Generation Spare Capacity	Constrained (declining)	Abundant (3x global data center demand by 2030)
AI Investment Focus	Commercial applications	Self-sufficiency + applications

Key Insight: The US leads in data center capacity and closed-source AI models, but China dominates open-source AI development and has 3x more power generation capacity for future expansion, a critical infrastructure advantage.

Critical Minerals and Energy (2025)

Category	United States	China
Rare Earth Production	3% of global consumption needs	Dominates heavy rare earth mining (via Myanmar)
Nuclear Reactor Construction Costs	Rising (expensive, slow)	Declining (learning-by-doing reduces costs)
Solar Installation Capacity	~200 GW cumulative	~1,200 GW cumulative (6x higher)
Power Grid Spare Capacity	At/below critical levels in 8 of 13 regional markets	Ample and growing
Renewable Energy by 2030	Growing but constrained	Projected to account for 50% of global renewables
Coal Power Capacity	Declining	Still expanding (largest producer and CO2 emitter)

Key Insight: China produces 6 times more solar capacity than the US and maintains abundant power generation for AI expansion, while America faces critical electricity shortages that could bottleneck its technological competitiveness.

Trade Partners Comparison (2000 vs 2024)

Metric	2000	2024
Countries where US is #1 trade partner	Most developed economies	Declining (Mexico now #1 US partner)
Countries where China is #1 trade partner	~10 countries (Cuba, Iran, Myanmar, etc.)	140+ countries (most of Asia, Africa, S. America)
China’s dominance in regions	Minimal	Asia, Africa, South America, Eastern Europe
US trade partner concentration	Diversified	Increasingly concentrated with Mexico, Canada, EU

Key Insight: China has become the primary trade partner for over 140 countries, 14 times more than in 2000, establishing dominant commercial relationships across Asia, Africa, and South America while the US influence has contracted.

Investment and Financial Flows (2024)

Category	United States	China
Outbound Direct Investment (ODI) Stock	$6.68 trillion (2023)	Growing rapidly, ~$1.16 trillion (2024 flow)
ODI Annual Growth	5.8% ($364 billion increase in 2023)	11.3% ($162.8 billion in 2024)
Foreign Direct Investment Focus	Europe, developed markets, services/tech	Belt & Road Initiative, infrastructure, emerging markets
Investment Restrictions	Export controls on chips/AI to China	Counter-restrictions on rare earths, critical minerals
Government-Guided Investment Funds	Limited	2,000+ funds totaling RMB 12.8 trillion ($1.75 trillion)

Key Insight: China’s outbound investment is growing twice as fast as America’s, with strategic focus on infrastructure and emerging markets through the Belt and Road Initiative, while US investment concentrates in developed economies and faces increasing restrictions on China.

Labor Market and Demographics (2024-2025)

Indicator	United States	China
Unemployment Rate	~4%	~5% (urban surveyed)
Youth Unemployment	Moderate concern	Major concern (high among graduates)
Millionaires	23.8 million (40% of global total)	Growing but lower per capita
Aging Population (Over 65 by 2050)	Rising	26% (up from 12% in 2024)
Workforce Growth	Positive but slowing	Declining due to aging and low birth rate
STEM Graduates	~500,000 annually	~4.7 million annually (4x more than US)

Key Insight: China produces nearly 5 times more STEM graduates annually than the US, but faces a demographic crisis with a rapidly aging population and negative population growth that will constrain long-term economic expansion.

Inflation and Consumer Spending (2024)

Metric	United States	China
Annual Inflation Rate	2.3% (down from 3.3% in 2023)	0.2% (near deflation)
Consumer Spending Growth (Q4 2024)	0.4-0.8% monthly growth	3.5% annual retail sales growth
Consumer Spending as % of GDP	~70%	Much lower, economy export-driven
Key Price Increases	Healthcare, housing, services	Healthcare (+1.3%), education (+1.5%)
Key Price Decreases	Moderating broadly	Fresh fruit (-3.5%), transport (-1.9%)
Consumer Confidence	Relatively strong	Weak, limiting spending

Key Insight: The US maintains healthy consumer spending at 70% of GDP with controlled 2.3% inflation, while China faces near-deflationary 0.2% inflation and weak consumer confidence despite government stimulus efforts, highlighting structural consumption challenges.

Government Debt and Fiscal Position (2024)

Debt Category	United States	China
Federal/Central Debt	>$34 trillion (rising)	RMB 14.3 trillion ($2 trillion) hidden local debt
Debt-to-GDP Ratio	~123% (federal only)	67.5% (including off-balance-sheet)
Treasury/Bond Issuance (2024)	Growing to cover deficits	RMB 12.4 trillion national + RMB 9.8 trillion local
Debt Restructuring Programs	None needed currently	RMB 6 trillion ($820 billion) over 2024-2026
Fiscal Stimulus Focus	Corporate tax cuts, defense	Infrastructure, semiconductors, consumer subsidies
Interest Rate Environment	4-5% (Fed rates)	1.08% (1-year treasury), 1.57% (interbank)

Key Insight: The US carries a significantly higher debt-to-GDP ratio at 123% compared to China’s 67.5%, but China faces a hidden local government debt crisis requiring massive restructuring while the US enjoys deeper capital markets for financing.

Export Performance and Trade Structure (2024)

Category	United States	China
Total Exports	$3.07 trillion	$3.52 trillion*
December 2024 Export Growth	-0.8% (Q4)	+10.7% year-over-year
Top Export Categories	Capital goods, services, agriculture, aircraft	Manufacturing, electronics, machinery, EVs
Services Exports	+7.2% (Q4 2024), global leader	Lower, manufacturing-focused
Trade Surplus/Deficit	-$918.4 billion deficit (record)	~$1 trillion surplus (2024 est.)
Share of US Imports (from China)	13.85% (2024, down from 21.2% in 2018)	N/A

*Estimated based on trade data

Key Insight: China achieved 10.7% export growth in December 2024 while running an estimated $1 trillion trade surplus, whereas the US faces a record $918.4 billion trade deficit despite strong services exports, this underes fundamentally different economic models.

Real Estate and Property Markets (2024)

Indicator	United States	China
Commercial Real Estate Vacancy	19.8% nationally, 36.9% in San Francisco	Significant but controlled by government
Property Sector Health	$1.5 trillion in maturing debt by 2025	-13% property sales (2023), major downturn
Mortgage Rate Interventions	Market-driven (7%+ rates in 2023-24)	Government mortgage rate cuts, re-lending programs
Real Estate as % of Economy	~15-18%	Historically 25-30% (declining)
Recovery Timeline	Office sector faces long adjustment	Expected to take years despite stimulus

Key Insight: Both nations face real estate crises, the US with $1.5 trillion in maturing commercial debt and 20% office vacancies, and China with a systemic property downturn that’s dragging down 25-30% of its economy despite aggressive government intervention.

Technology Investment and R&D Spending

Investment Category	United States	China
Government Tech Investment	CHIPS Act: $50 billion for semiconductors	RMB 1 trillion ($137 billion) early-stage tech fund
AI Infrastructure Subsidies	Tax incentives, private-sector led	Up to 50% power subsidies for AI chip users
Semiconductor Equipment Investment	$43 billion allocated (CHIPS Act)	Phase 3 IC Fund: RMB 343 billion ($47 billion)
Critical Minerals Investment	$10 billion (Industrial Base Fund)	Dominates processing, limited mining investment
Private Sector AI Investment	$100+ billion annually (Microsoft, Google, Meta, etc.)	Government-coordinated, lower private capital
R&D Tax Benefits	100% R&D expense deduction (OBBBA)	100% R&D super deduction (pre-tax)

Key Insight: The US relies heavily on private sector capital for AI development (exceeding $100 billion annually), while China deploys coordinated government investment totaling over $180 billion across semiconductors, AI, and critical technologies.

Top Scientific Publications in Critical Technologies (2024)

Technology Domain	US Share of Top 10% Publications	China Share of Top 10% Publications	Leader
Artificial Intelligence	18%	30%	China
Quantum Computing	28%	22%	USA
Energy & Environment	10%	46%	China
Hypersonic Detection	~15%	~75% (60pt lead)	China
High-Spec Machining	~15%	~71% (56pt lead)	China
Advanced Materials	Lower	Higher	China
Vaccines & Medical Countermeasures	Leading (10pt+ lead)	Following	USA
Overall (64 Technology Categories)	Leading in 7	Leading in 57	China

Key Insight: China leads the US in top-tier scientific publications across 57 of 64 critical technology domains, including a commanding 46% to 10% advantage in energy and environment research, while the US maintains narrow leads only in vaccines, quantum computing, and a handful of other fields.

Tariff and Trade Policy Actions (2025)

Policy Action	United States	China
Current Tariff on Other’s Goods	20% on Chinese imports (as of March 2025)	10-15% on select US goods (agriculture, energy)
Tariff Escalation Pattern	10% (Feb 4) → 20% (March 4, 2025)	Immediate 10-15% retaliation on agriculture/energy
Critical Export Restrictions	Semiconductors, AI chips (Nvidia H100, AMD)	Rare earths, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum
Targeted Product Categories	Broader manufacturing (reciprocal tariffs)	US coal, LNG, crude oil, soybeans, cotton, wheat, corn
Trade Deal Status	Temporary truce (October 2024, now expired)	Suspended some restrictions, then re-imposed
Long-term Trade Strategy	Reshoring, friendshoring, Mexico/Canada focus	Belt & Road expansion, Global South dominance

Key Insight: The US and China are engaged in escalating tit-for-tat tariffs, US at 20% on Chinese goods and China retaliating with 10-15% on agriculture and energy, alongside strategic export bans that target each nation’s critical supply chain vulnerabilities (US: chips; China: rare earths).

Future Economic Projections (2026-2030)

Projection	United States	China
GDP Growth 2026	2.1-2.4%	3-4% (slowing from 5% target)
GDP Size by 2030	~$35-37 trillion	$23.9-26 trillion
Current Account Balance	Large deficit (continuing)	1% of global GDP surplus by 2029
Economic Model Shift	Services-led, consumption steady	Export-led + domestic consumption push
Population by 2030	360 million (growing)	1.4 billion (declining, aging)
Share Over 65 by 2050	Rising moderately	26% (from 12% in 2024)
Potential Growth Constraints	Debt, political uncertainty, trade wars	Demographics, debt, real estate, overcapacity

Key Insight: China’s GDP is projected to reach $23.9-26 trillion by 2030 but will grow more slowly (3-4%) due to demographic decline and structural challenges, while the US is expected to maintain steady 2.1-2.4% growth and reach $35-37 trillion, preserving its nominal GDP lead but with China closing the gap.

Global Manufacturing Capacity Indicators (2024)

Capacity Indicator	United States	China
Global Export Containers	~15%	36%
Electric Vehicle Capacity	Growing	159% of global demand
Solar Module Capacity	~10%	140% of global demand
Steel Capacity	Declining	120% of global demand
Lithium Battery Capacity	Limited	153% of global demand
Power Semiconductors	~15%	130% of global demand
Industrial Robots Deployment	Lower per worker	12x higher than US (income-adjusted)

Key Insight: China operates at 130-159% of global demand capacity across strategic industries (EVs, solar, batteries, steel), creating massive overcapacity that enables price suppression and export dominance, while the US struggles to compete in manufacturing scale.

References

DataGlobeHub makes use of the best available data sources to support each publication. We prioritize sources of good reputation, like government sources, authoritative sources, expert sources, and well-researched publications. When citing our sources, we provide the report title followed by the publication name. Where not applicable, we provide just the publication name.

Trade in Goods with China – U.S. Census Bureau
GACC – General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China
The US-China Tech Race – Goldman Sachs
How China Is Outperforming the United States in Critical Technologies – Information Technology & Innovation Foundation
China and the United States Are Racing Towards Different Ends in AI – Union of Concerned Scientists
Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim – IMF
China vs. US Economy: Comparative Analysis and 2025 Outlook – China Briefing
China is closing in on US technology lead despite constraints, AI researchers say – Reuters